Senedd Election 2026: all to play for

Sian Jones, Head of Grayling Cymru Wales

With Wales steeling itself for another thumping Six Nations defeat, the average member of the Welsh public has likely given little thought to the next big national contest just over a year away – the elections for Wales’ Seventh Senedd in May 2026. Although the reality, as we all know in public affairs, is that influencing the Seventh Senedd will start long before polling day – and that organisations keen to make a mark will already be getting their manifesto shopping lists together.

The Art of Influence

As the first few weeks of 2025 slip by, we are quickly approaching the ‘year to go’ mark and are already seeing MSs and others announce their intention to stand – or stand down. Before we know it, constituency boundaries will be finalised, candidates will be announced, the Welsh conference season will be underway and manifesto preparation will begin in earnest.

This means organisations need to start giving serious thought to how they will engage with the next crop of Senedd members – and, potentially, with a new Welsh Government.

In the coming weeks and months, parties will be working at pace to progress policy development. Roundtables are being arranged across a range of sectors, and with the parties’ policy teams keen to hear from industry experts. To influence policymaking effectively, it will be vital for organisations to take a granular approach to stakeholder mapping and look to determine where their interests align with candidates’ priorities on a local level, as well as with matters driving national discussion. This is particularly important in this election, with 36 additional Senedd members set to be elected. Ambitious candidates will be keen to make their mark, while incumbents will be keen to be seen out and about ahead of polling day.  

All change for Labour

New boundaries and an enlarged Senedd, not to mention the growing influence of Reform – if recent opinion polling is anything to go by - could result in this being the first time in years we see a Welsh Government of another colour, or colours, being elected. At the very least, Labour returning as the largest party in 2026 cannot be taken for granted, with the chances of an overall majority for any party looking slimmer than ever. Whichever way the votes fall, cross-party co-operation looks set to be the name of the game come next May.

We’ve known for a while that some of Welsh Labour’s most prominent names; Mark Drakeford, Vaughan Gething, Lee Waters will be standing down at the next election. However, one of the most eye-catching announcements has been that the Economy and Energy Secretary, Rebecca Evans, has decided not to stand. She was the seventh Labour MSs to make that decision - with Lesley Griffiths, Julie Morgan, Jane Hutt and John Griffiths[SJ1]  coming soon afterwards. But Ms Evans’ announcement, as one of Eluned Morgan’s most senior Ministers at the peak of her career, came as a surprise to many.  Many politics watchers are speculating as to what this means for Labour’s confidence about its chances in next year’s poll, which will take place under an entirely new, proportional system, with six MSs representing each of the 16 new enlarged constituencies.

Into the Unknown

The big question which seems to be on everyone’s minds, regardless of personal political persuasion, is: can Reform really deliver the resounding success projected by the polls? Local party meetings have been said to be packed to the rafters as Nigel Farage’s team move to stamp their unique brand of politics on Wales. The question now will be whether Reform can mobilise a campaign to match the effectiveness of Welsh Labour’s ground operation – and whether its decision not to appoint a Welsh leader will count against it.

Plaid Cymru will be looking to break out of its traditional stronghold in its Welsh-speaking heartlands and make in-roads across the South Wales Valleys. Rhun ap Iorwerth has proven himself to be an articulate and popular leader but faces the challenge of demonstrating that his party is in touch with the concerns of Valleys voters who have been receptive to Reform. However, after winning four seats, up from three, in the General Election, promising polls in recent weeks and a likely strong turnout, Plaid are nonetheless likely to feel quietly optimistic of a potential role to play in a future left-of-centre Welsh Government.   

Meanwhile, Darren Millar’s Welsh Conservatives will be keen to win back seats across their heartlands in rural Mid and North Wales after the devasting defeat suffered last year. With the potential to be a partner in a Reform-led coalition government – on current polling at least - every seat will count.

Turnout, as ever, will be key. Can Reform deliver a campaign effective enough to get its vote out in a Senedd election? Will 16-17 year olds votes make any kind of impact? Or will the new system simply confuse and disengage voters entirely?

It may be too soon to know the answers to any of these questions. But organisations and businesses would be wise not to discount any possible scenario in what is rapidly shaping up to be the most unpredictable election since the dawn of Welsh devolution.